Forecasting: Production Control

Forecasting is a technique of predicting the volume of sales of the establishment for a specific future period like, for a day, a week, etc.

The following are taken into considerations for forecasting –

1. Estimating the total numbers of covers sold from the past records,
2. Analysis of the portions of menu items sold,
3. Popularity ratio – ratio between – meal period: no. of covers sold: menu items sold,
4. Occupancy in the hotel,
5. Special events,
6. Weather,
7. Season of the year,
8. Day of the week,
9. Holidays

Initial Forecasting –

It is prepared a week in advance and indicates –

1. The estimated meals to be prepared in each selling outlet,
2. The estimated total of each menu item for each day of the following menu week.

The basis for initial volume forecasting:

1. Past records or sales histories
2. Advance booking and reservation
3. Current events
4. Current trends

Final Forecasting –

This forecasting takes place the day before the preparation, and is based on –

1. The previous days’ food production and sales figure,
2. The weather condition.

On comparison with the initial forecasting, it might require substantial alterations, the purchase order sent to the suppliers are amended as soon as possible. The copies of the final volume forecast are sent to –

1. F&B Manager,
2. F&B Controller,
3. Executive Chef,
4. Purchase Manager,
5. Store Manager,
6. Others – to whom the information would be of use.

The objectives of Final Volume Forecasting –

1. To predict the total number of meals to be sold in each selling outlet of the hotel,
2. To predict the choice of menu items by customers/guests,
3. To facilitate F&B purchasing,
4. To ensure availability of all necessary ingredients required,
5. To control food costs in relation to sales,
6. To enable the F&B Controller to compare the actual volume of sales with the one predicted.